WP2. Reconstruct and attribute sea-level changes during the 20th century

Inputs

(i) Data lake produced in WP1; (ii) historical climate simulations from CMIP6 and Multi-Model Large Ensemble Archive (MMLEA; [20]), NorESM pacemaker simulations with realistic historical internal climate variability; (iii) fingerprint model set up in WP3.

Description

WP2 is dedicated to reconstructing and attributing contributions to regional sea-level changes at the northern high latitudes over the past century using a combination of probabilistic, process-informed and complex dynamical models (Task 2.1). Reconstructions will be compared to output from an ensemble of climate models (as used for projections in AR6). The comparison will investigate the role of internal variability on different time scales (linking to task Task 1.2) and attempt to separate observed and reconstructed sea level changes into a forced and an unforced signal. This will enable us to assess whether an anthropogenic signal has already emerged from the background noise that is internal variability, and/or whether the magnitude of internal variability has changed (Task 2.2). The comparison will add new insight into the role of model resolution for sea-level projections, inform a weighting scheme for climate models and assess the implications of an equal weight approach (as used in AR6) for sea-level projections along the Northern European coastline (Task 2.3).