Inputs
(i) Stand-alone and coupled ice sheet-climate models; (ii) climate model ranking (WP2); (iii) ocean mesoscale fields (WP1).
Description
WP3 will contribute to improved sea-level projections on the regional and global scale leveraging existing expertise of the project partners and building new competence. The WP will deliver process-based sea-level projections for the Greenland ice sheet with standalone ice sheet simulations and with the coupled climate ice-sheet model NorESM up to year 2100 and 2300 (Task 3.1). The forcing of the standalone model will be derived from an ensemble of climate models, weighted according to their performance over the historical period to reduce uncertainties in sea-level projections. Mass change distributions from the ice sheet model output will be used as a case study to develop the capability to produce patterns of sea-level change that are distinct for each ice sheet (sea-level fingerprints) (Task 3.2). The impact of resolving mesoscale variability in the ocean on the reliability of sea-level projections will be investigated using coarse and high-resolution climate models (Task 3.3), considering the outputs of WP1 as a reference. Observation and model-based information on vertical land movements, sediment supply and distribution will, together with SLR predictions, be used in machine learning algorithms to predict future coastal vulnerability on natural ecosystems and human society (Task 3.4).